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July 2, 2018

Mexico’s next president likely to defy Trump on immigration

Mexico’s presidential candidates all agree Mexico can no longer maintain its policy of helping enforce U.S. immigration laws.

United States President Donald Trump has for the flow of Central Americans seeking to enter .

Migrants just cross Mexico like they鈥檙e 鈥渨alking through Central Park,鈥� .

In truth, Mexico is . In 2014 President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto implemented a robust deterrence effort, the Southern Border Program, to deter migration across Mexico鈥檚 border with Guatemala.

Between 2014 and 2015, Mexican deportations of Central Americans traveling to the U.S. 鈥� primarily Guatemalans, Hondurans and Salvadorans 鈥� more than doubled, from in 2013 to in 2015. During the same period, U.S. border agents at the border.

That compliant attitude is about to change. Mexicans 鈥� and , from mayors all the way up to senators 鈥� on Sunday, July 1. It is the biggest and in Mexico鈥檚 history. And Trump鈥檚 draconian new immigration policies, which include , have .

Mexico鈥檚 four presidential candidates , from corruption to the economy. But they all agree on this: Mexico can no longer maintain its .

Nobody鈥檚 pi帽ata

Presidential front-runner Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador is an outspoken who separating migrant families as 鈥渁rrogant, racist and inhuman.鈥�

He is widely expected to win on Sunday. The 64-year-old leftist has led the four-way race for months and currently has 49 percent of voter support, according to the .

L贸pez Obrador launched his presidential bid on April 1 with a rally in Ciudad Ju谩rez, the northern Mexico city where thousands of migrants into the U.S. each year. In a fiery speech, L贸pez Obrador that, with him as president, Mexico would reassert itself as a 鈥渇ree, sovereign and independent鈥� nation and would not be the 鈥減i帽ata鈥� of any foreign power.

An early critic of President Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 Southern Border Program, L贸pez Obrador has the Mexican government of committing human rights violations in its persecution and deportations of Central American migrants.

On his watch, Mexico to its southern border, L贸pez Obrador says, but it would no longer do Trump鈥檚 鈥渄irty work.鈥� L贸pez Obrador wants Mexico to that protect the human rights of migrants and guarantee that asylum-seekers can find refuge in its borders.

Ricardo Anaya, the , has also attacked President Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 Central American migrants. Anaya says his country must be a 鈥溾�� on immigration, treating Central Americans in Mexico as justly and humanely as Mexican immigrants would like to be treated in the U.S.

The changing face of migration

Illegal immigration to the U.S. has changed radically over the past two decades.

The number of Mexicans apprehended crossing illegally has , from more than 1.6 million in 2000 to 130,000 last year.

Central Americans, driven by , now make up caught trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border. In 2017, U.S. Border Patrol agents there arrested 303,916 migrants. Just over half of them 鈥� people 鈥� were from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.

Mexico has thus become a country for migrants.

It is also, increasingly, their . Mexico saw , up from . Only the U.S. received more Central American asylum-seekers, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency.

Rather than , President Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 administration in 2014 accepted to better secure its borders. His government persecuted migrants who journey through the country.

Mexico detained 40,920 Central American migrants . Nearly 35,000 were deported.

In 2016, the Obama administration recognized Mexico for 鈥溾�� so many Central American migrants. Trump has expressed no such gratitude.

The high cost of appeasing Trump

In 2016, Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 advisers invited both U.S. presidential candidates to visit Mexico.

Clinton the invitation. Trump, whose 2016 campaign was fueled by promises to build a , accepted.

In a joint press conference on Aug. 31, 2016, Pe帽a Nieto emphasized his country鈥檚 contribution to U.S. immigration enforcement. The border, Pe帽a Nieto , represents a 鈥渟hared challenge鈥� and a 鈥済reat humanitarian crisis.鈥�

 

 

Trump was subdued at that event. But he ridiculed the Mexican president at a campaign rally later the same day, insisting that Mexico would indeed .

鈥淭hey don鈥檛 know it yet,鈥� he in Phoenix, Arizona, 鈥渂ut they鈥檙e going to pay for it.鈥�

Pe帽a Nieto never recovered from this diplomatic disaster. According to the , 88 percent of Mexican citizens were offended by Trump鈥檚 visit 鈥� and by Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 behavior. The Mexican president鈥檚 approval rating to below 25 percent and never bounced back.

His party has paid the price. Jos茅 Antonio Meade, the presidential candidate for Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 Revolutionary Institutional Party, has been stuck in throughout the 2018 election season.

Another Mexican revolution

L贸pez Obrador, a savvy career politician, has benefited from Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 mistake.

Even the choice of location for his campaign launch, Ciudad Ju谩rez, that L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 attitude toward Trump would not be one of deference.

Ju谩rez is not just a border city 鈥� it鈥檚 a symbolic place in Mexican history. It was the bulwark where Mexico鈥檚 only indigenous president, Benito Ju谩rez, in 1867 fought back a French invasion and re-established a sovereign Mexican government. Ju谩rez is also the city whose 1911 capture by pro-democracy forces during the forced dictator Porfirio D铆az to resign.

L贸pez Obrador closed his campaign on June 27, four days before the election . At a , he promised 100,000 supporters that he would 鈥渢ransform鈥� their country.

Like so many of L贸pez Obrador鈥檚 , his immigration plan is short on details. But it鈥檚 clear Trump has already lost his power of intimidation south of the border 鈥� even if, , he doesn鈥檛 know it yet.

, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory,

This article was originally published on . Read the .

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